The Greater Toronto Area housing market experienced a notable cooling trend in September, as a new report from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) reveals a contraction in both sales activity and new inventory. While headline figures might initially suggest a shifting balance of power between buyers and sellers, industry experts caution that a deeper look at the underlying data reveals a market still grappling with downward pressure on prices and cautious consumer sentiment.
TRREB recorded a total of 5,040 home sales across the Greater Toronto Area in September, marking a decline of 500 transactions compared to the same month a year earlier. This represents a 9 per cent decrease in sales volume, moving down from 5,540 sales in September of the previous year. However, the contraction on the supply side was even more pronounced. New listings plummeted by 14.4 per cent, with 16,500 properties coming onto the market this September compared to 19,270 twelve months prior. This resulted in 2,770 fewer properties entering the active inventory pool.
This divergence between falling sales and even faster-falling new listings created a mathematical shift in the sales-to-new-listings ratio. When dividing September’s sales by its new listings, the ratio ticks upward from 28.7 per cent last year to 30.5 per cent this year, an improvement of roughly 1.8 percentage points. At the same time, TRREB’s published trend ratio, which utilizes a 12-month moving average, settled at 37.8 per cent.
For real estate agents sitting down with clients for listing appointments, interpreting this improved ratio requires nuance. A superficial reading might tempt some to declare that the market is tightening rapidly in favor of sellers. However, analysts emphasize that September brought fewer overall sales alongside fewer new listings, and seasonally adjusted figures actually showed both metrics falling from August levels. Consequently, market participants warn that there is very little statistical basis for telling prospective clients that an enthusiastic wave of buyers has triumphantly returned with the arrival of the fall market. Furthermore, these same-month calculations do not track the exact trajectory of individual listings, as September’s sales figures inevitably include homes listed prior to the month, while some newly listed properties will inevitably remain on the books to be sold later. A ratio of 30.5 per cent does not mean that nearly 70 per cent of homes listed that month failed to find a buyer.
Inventory Fell at Almost the Same Pace as Sales
Despite the sharp drop in new listings, total active inventory at month-end did not stage a dramatic tightening relative to demand. TRREB reported 26,131 active listings at the conclusion of September, down 9.3 per cent from the 28,813 active listings recorded in September 2025. This equates to 2,682 fewer active listings on a year-over-year basis.
Because the sales pace shrank by almost the exact same proportion, the overall market balance remained remarkably stable. At September’s specific sales pace, the active inventory represented 5.18 months of ongoing sales, shifting only negligibly from the 5.20 months of inventory recorded a year earlier. When rounded to one decimal place, both figures settle at 5.2 months. Meanwhile, TRREB’s separate trend measure for inventory stood at 4.6 months.
Market analysts note that this calculation of months of inventory is merely a snapshot in time rather than a definitive forecast of how long today’s active listings will ultimately take to clear. For a buyer currently navigating the market, a wealth of alternative properties remains available. Conversely, a seller gains very little advantage from a smaller board-wide inventory if the direct competing homes within their specific price bracket and neighborhood remain readily available and aggressively priced.
Relisting Adds to the Reported Selling Period
Understanding how long it takes to successfully complete a transaction requires looking beyond basic averages, particularly when properties undergo changes in their listing status. In September, the average listing days on market for a home in the GTA ticked up to 34 days, compared to 33 days a year prior. Meanwhile, the average property days on market—a metric that accounts for relisting activities by the same seller and brokerage within the original contractual period—remained steady at 51 days.
This 17-day gap highlights an important dynamic in how sales durations are perceived. While listing days measure only the visible time a finally sold property spent on the market during its active run, property days account for the broader history, capturing periods where the property may have been temporarily withdrawn and relisted. A fresh listing can project a very short visible history while the underlying property has actually spent weeks searching for a receptive buyer. Relying solely on the 34-day figure risks understating the true time and effort involved in completing a sale.
Both averages, however, reflect exclusively properties that successfully sold. They intentionally exclude homes that remained unsold at month-end as well as listings that were eventually pulled from the market entirely without a transaction taking place. Because of these omissions, real estate professionals caution against turning either metric into a guaranteed or promised selling timeline for future clients.
Durham Has Less Inventory Relative to Sales Than York
Regional disparities across the Greater Toronto Area remain pronounced, with inventory and market conditions varying widely depending on the municipality. Among TRREB’s large regional reporting areas, the published inventory trend ranged from a tight 3.5 months in Durham Region all the way up to 5.8 months in Simcoe County. Halton Region sat at 4.2 months, the City of Toronto at 4.6 months, Peel Region at 4.9 months, and York Region at 5.0 months.
Real estate professionals point out that these broad regional figures must be contextualized. For instance, the Simcoe County figure covers only TRREB’s specific reporting jurisdiction within the county rather than every single transaction occurring across the entire geographic region. Agents must narrow these regional comparisons down to the exact property type and narrow price tier that their client is preparing to enter.
The City of Toronto’s internal breakdown further illustrates the danger of relying on broad generalizations. TRREB’s ratio of average selling price to average listing price stood at 101 per cent in Toronto East, 99 per cent in Toronto West, and 98 per cent in Toronto Central. This demonstrates that transactions occurring above the asking price remain entirely possible even within a broader declining market environment. Asking prices are fundamentally a tactical component of a seller’s marketing strategy rather than a reflection of true market appreciation. A property that is deliberately priced low may easily attract multiple offers and sell above its asking price, yet still trade at a significant discount compared to a comparable home sold the previous year.
Price the Listing Against the Buyer’s Alternatives
Downward pressure on property values persisted through the end of the third quarter. The overall average selling price across the GTA reached $1,006,409 in September, edging up from August’s revised, unadjusted average of $993,604. Despite this month-over-month bump in the raw average, TRREB’s broader analytical metrics—including both the seasonally adjusted average price and the MLS Home Price Index composite benchmark—continued to trend lower. Specifically, the average selling price was down 5.1 per cent on a year-over-year basis, while the MLS Home Price Index composite benchmark registered a 4.7 per cent decline.
Experts emphasize that raw averages can fluctuate significantly simply as a result of shifts in the underlying mix of properties that happen to sell in a given month. Using a single month’s increase in the average price to justify an aggressive asking price ignores the more cautious underlying price trends highlighted in board reports.
Instead, a comprehensive pricing discussion must be anchored in recent comparable sales and the active competing listings that a buyer can realistically purchase today. Incorporating the property’s full listing history into that conversation is vital. If local market competition shifts while a property is still on the market, the pricing strategy must adapt accordingly. Furthermore, setting a clear review date early enough in the listing cycle allows sellers to take corrective action if initial buyer response is weak, helping them avoid spending weeks lagging behind competing properties that have already adjusted to market realities.