As another action-packed weekend of Premier League football approaches, Sky Sports’ resident tipster Lewis Jones, widely known as Jones Knows, returns with his comprehensive tactical analysis and betting insights. From high-stakes reunions and tactical battles to surprising underdog value, Jones breaks down every major fixture on the slate.
Ipswich Town vs Nottingham Forest, Friday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
There is sure to be an extra layer of needle and tension when Liam Delap makes his return to Ipswich Town on Friday night. During Ipswich’s previous relegation campaign, Delap was widely regarded as one of the few shining lights in an otherwise difficult season. However, circumstances have shifted dramatically, and this time around, he will be the opposing striker that the Portman Road home crowd is desperate to rattle.
Delap is a notoriously emotional competitor who thrives on playing right on the edge of legality. In recent interviews, he openly admitted that he performs at his absolute best when he is right in the faces of his opponents, which speaks volumes about his fiery mentality. While that kind of raw aggression can serve as a massive asset for a modern centre-forward, it can also leave him dangerously exposed to losing his composure when matches become heated.
The statistical evidence firmly supports this angle. During that challenging 2024/25 campaign with Ipswich, Delap averaged an impressive 2.6 fouls per 90 minutes and accumulated a staggering 12 yellow cards in the Premier League alone. Furthermore, he has already collected two cautions in just five starts for Nottingham Forest this season, demonstrating that the combative, high-octane side of his game remains completely intact.
Adding to the intrigue is referee Thomas Bramall, who shares a notable history with Delap. Bramall previously dismissed the striker for two bookable offenses during Chelsea’s victory over Wolverhampton Wanderers last season. Now, factoring in the intense emotional backdrop of facing his former supporters—who know precisely how to provoke a reaction—backing Liam Delap to be carded stands out as a compelling selection at 3/1 with Sky Bet.
Score Prediction: 1-2
Jones Knows’ Best Bet: Liam Delap to be carded (3/1 with Sky Bet)
Aston Villa vs Man City, Saturday 12.30pm
When Unai Emery’s Aston Villa side are positioned as significant home underdogs, the underlying numbers routinely make a compelling case for backing them. Villa’s record against the established elite of the Premier League at Villa Park under Emery’s stewardship borders on the remarkable.
Since the beginning of the 2023/24 season, Villa have contested 13 home fixtures against opponents that finished in the top four of the table that season. From those encounters, they have secured eight victories, two draws, and suffered just three defeats. That translates to an average return of 2.00 points per game—a statistic that would have generated a £16 profit from £1.00 level stakes if a punter had backed Villa to win in every single one of those matches. Crucially, that impressive sequence includes three consecutive home victories over Manchester City.
While Manchester City’s fearsome reputation and their flawless start to the current campaign are naturally reflected in the betting markets, they should not automatically make Villa a team to blindly oppose. Emery’s side have successfully rediscovered their rhythm following a sluggish start to the season, securing an impressive victory away at Newcastle United that highlighted the trademark efficiency of a well-drilled Emery outfit. With City arriving boasting seven consecutive league victories, Villa’s tactical intensity, vocal home support, and recent head-to-head dominance suggest this will be a far sterner test than City’s pristine league record might otherwise imply.
Score Prediction: 2-1
Jones Knows’ Best Bet: Aston Villa double chance (6/5 with Sky Bet)
Arsenal vs Everton, Saturday 3pm
David Moyes has successfully transformed Everton into a resilient, difficult-to-break-down outfit, but a completely different challenge presents itself when his teams are required to travel away to the Premier League’s heavyweight clubs. Since taking charge of West Ham in his previous tenure, Moyes has suffered 21 defeats in 22 away matches against Manchester City, Arsenal, and Liverpool combined. That dismal record against the division’s elite makes backing Arsenal a logical and appealing starting point.
However, the smarter tactical and betting play involves combining the inevitable home victory with under 3.5 total match goals at 10/11 with Sky Bet. Arsenal have cultivated a remarkably reliable habit of securing victories without allowing matches to transform into chaotic, high-scoring affairs. This specific betting angle has successfully landed in 12 of their last 14 home fixtures across both the Premier League and the UEFA Champions League, including each of their last eight consecutive matches on home turf.
This consistency is far from a coincidence. Mikel Arteta’s side are systematically engineered to control the tempo of matches, suffocate opponent transitions, and expertly manage the closing stages once they establish a lead.
Score Prediction: 2-0
Coventry vs Fulham, Saturday 3pm
Fulham are consistently generating the kind of aggressive attacking metrics that immediately establish them as an attractive proposition for punters. They are currently averaging a league-high 33.5 touches inside the opposition penalty box per match this season—a statistic admittedly bolstered by the 54 touches they recorded against Hull City at home. However, this is not merely a case of one statistical anomaly skewing the data; there is genuine substance underpinning their attacking output.
Only Brighton & Hove Albion and Manchester City have managed to generate a higher expected goals (xG) figure per 90 minutes from open play than Fulham’s impressive 1.34. This metric serves as a significant indicator of the high quality of scoring opportunities they are manufacturing week in and week out, suggesting a side that consistently unlocks opponents through sustained pressure rather than relying on fortunate scraps or isolated moments of individual brilliance.
Score Prediction: 1-2
Jones Knows’ Best Bet: Fulham to score over 1.5 goals (Evens with Sky Bet)
Chelsea vs Tottenham, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports
Fixtures between Chelsea and Tottenham Hotspur rarely pass without incident. The last seven competitive meetings between these fierce London rivals have produced an average of six cards per game. Furthermore, referee Chris Kavanagh has brandished an average of 4.2 cards per 90 minutes since the beginning of last season—representing the third-highest average of any match official in the Premier League over that timeframe.
While the line for over 5.5 total cards is understandably short at 20/23 with Sky Bet, greater value can be found in the player card market, where Levi Colwill is available at an enticing 4/1.
The rationale behind targeting Colwill centres on James Maddison, who has established himself as one of the Premier League’s most efficient operators when it comes to drawing cautions from opponents. Since 2018, Maddison has been directly responsible for 77 opposition players receiving yellow cards, working out at an average of one every 215 minutes. Having already forced two opponents into the referee’s notebook this season, Maddison is rediscovering his mischievous edge, utilizing his exceptional close control and nimble footwork to tempt defenders into making rash, mistimed challenges. Colwill could well be the next player caught in his trap.
Score Prediction: 1-1
Jones Knows’ Best Bet: Levi Colwill to be carded (4/1 with Sky Bet)
Crystal Palace vs Newcastle, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports
Occasionally, the most intriguing betting angles are those that initially feel uncomfortable to back. Opting for a scoreless first half when Crystal Palace’s defence has been uncharacteristically porous certainly falls into that category, but there are compelling underlying reasons to believe the market might be misjudging the flow of this fixture.
Palace have conceded two or more goals in 11 of their last 13 Premier League outings, and their defensive metrics make for grim reading. However, a turning point appears inevitable. Following a bruising 5-0 defeat at the hands of Brighton, manager Pierre Sage publicly conceded that urgent changes were required. Reading between the lines of his post-match assessment, that acknowledgment points toward a much more cautious, pragmatic approach when they host Newcastle.
Palace simply cannot afford to maintain such an open, expansive structure that leaves them continually exposed to swift counter-attacks. A risk-averse, tightened-up opening 45 minutes could be precisely what the team requires to steady the ship, making a 0-0 half-time scoreline an intriguing prospect at 5/2 with Sky Bet.
Score Prediction: 1-0
Hull vs Brentford, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports
Hull City’s direct, physical style of play, spearheaded by the tireless all-action striker Oli McBurnie, is generating a fascinating statistical trend concerning opposition centre-backs.
Central defenders are currently averaging 1.5 fouls drawn per 90 minutes when facing Hull. This phenomenon makes complete sense when evaluating McBurnie’s aggressive approach to physical duels, his relentless aerial contesting, and his ability to make life thoroughly uncomfortable for markers. When a team adopts such a direct philosophy, central defenders are inevitably forced into frequent physical interactions, increasing the likelihood of infringements.
Kristoffer Ajer is priced at 10/11 with Sky Bet to be fouled at least once, representing a strong candidate to keep this established tactical trend ticking along. Ajer has already drawn three fouls across his last two appearances, aligning neatly with the wider patterns observed in Hull’s fixtures.
Score Prediction: 1-1
Jones Knows’ Best Bet: Kristoffer Ajer to be fouled at least once (10/11 with Sky Bet)
Liverpool vs Brighton, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports
Questions regarding whether Brighton can be considered genuine Premier League title contenders may sound slightly premature, but Fabian Hurzeler’s exceptional record against the division’s traditional heavyweights demands serious analytical attention.
Since his managerial appointment in 2024, Brighton have accumulated a league-high 19 points from 13 fixtures against Arsenal, Liverpool, and Manchester City. Across those high-profile encounters, they have managed to score 20 goals while conceding 17, winning the aggregate scoreline against three of the most formidable clubs in English football—a truly astonishing statistic. Furthermore, Brighton continue to demonstrate immense tactical bravery when playing without possession, as evidenced by their assertive display against Crystal Palace.
While Anfield remains one of the most intimidating destinations in European football, Brighton’s proven pedigree against elite opposition suggests they should not be dismissed as heavy underdogs purely based on reputation. At 11/8 with Sky Bet, the draw no bet market provides essential insurance if the points are shared, whilst still offering an attractive return should Brighton pull off another statement result.
Score Prediction: 1-2
Man Utd vs Bournemouth, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports
Manchester United find themselves installed as strong favourites heading into this fixture—a reality worth pausing to reflect upon.
Amassing a meager seven points from their opening seven Premier League matches represents United’s worst start to a top-flight campaign in 37 years. Compounding these domestic struggles, they have endured a wretched seven-match winless run across all competitions, suffering four defeats and three draws along the way. This is a squad currently struggling to convince observers that they possess the tactical or mental solutions to arrest their decline, yet the betting markets continue to position them as reliable favourites.
Beneath the surface, there appears to be a worrying lack of collective cohesion at Old Trafford. Bruno Fernandes’ visibly frustrated body language and his candid post-match remarks following their recent outing did little to project an image of a united dressing room pulling in the same direction.
Bournemouth, conversely, will arrive at Old Trafford with every right to believe they can secure a positive result. The Cherries are currently unbeaten in their last six encounters against United, finding the back of the net 15 times across those fixtures. The draw no bet market offers a prudent safety net, returning the stake if the match ends level, while an outright Bournemouth victory is available at 11/8 with Sky Bet.
Score Prediction: 1-3
Jones Knows’ Best Bet: Bournemouth draw no bet (11/8 with Sky Bet)
Sunderland vs Leeds, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports
When assessing matches where no clear favourite emerges from the data, reverting to basics and backing the longest price of the three traditional outcomes can often prove prudent.
Backing draws in the Premier League has proven to be a consistently profitable strategy over the past two seasons, yielding a tidy return of +46 points to £1 level stakes. While historical profits offer no guarantees for future results, it serves as a timely reminder that the draw is frequently overlooked by punters who instinctively gravitate towards picking a definitive winner.
Leeds United stand out as a particularly compelling team to focus on in this regard, having drawn eight of their last 16 Premier League fixtures. That represents a substantial statistical pattern, making the price of 21/10 with Sky Bet for another stalemate well worth considering.
Score Prediction: 1-1