With a fresh forecast projecting the NHL’s salary cap to surge dramatically over the next two years, the landscape of professional hockey finance is shifting at an unprecedented pace. It is officially time for hockey executives, agents, and fans alike to start pondering a monumental milestone: who will be the first player to reach the staggering threshold of $30 million per year?
Just like that, all the lucrative contracts signed this summer now suddenly look like bargains. It is a strange thing to say, particularly after Colorado Avalanche star Cale Makar recently became the league’s first $20-million-per-year player following a historic eight-year contract extension worth $163.2 million. Yet, with the salary cap expected to increase by an eye-popping $23.5 million from now until the 2028-29 season, nobody should be surprised if Makar is forced to relinquish his title as the league’s highest-paid player even before his shiny new contract officially kicks in next season.
The acceleration of elite player compensation has moved at a dizzying speed. After all, it took only 26 days for San Jose Sharks phenom Macklin Celebrini and his $18.8 million average annual value (AAV) to eclipse Anaheim Ducks star Leo Carlsson, who had briefly claimed the crown with an $18 million AAV. Less than a month after Celebrini’s benchmark was established, Makar smashed the ceiling entirely with his record-setting deal in Denver.
This rapid escalation naturally raises a burning question across the hockey world: how long will it take before the league sees its first $25-million player? Or, given the aggressive trajectory of the rising cap, a $30-million player?
When looking at the historical trajectory, the pace of change is breathtaking. It took less than two years for the NHL’s highest-paid player to climb from $15 million to $20 million—and that exponential leap occurred during a span when the salary cap increased by a relatively modest $16 million. In stark contrast, the projected cap increase over just the next two years could reach as high as $23.5 million.
It is little wonder that this past summer proved to be a historic window of opportunity where restricted and unrestricted free agents alike truly got paid. Looking back, it almost feels as though the league’s top agents and players were gazing into a Magic 8-Ball and possessed a prescient understanding of what the financial future held.
Speaking candidly during an interview earlier this month, Macklin Celebrini offered a glimpse behind the curtain of modern contract negotiations. The young star hinted that he and his representatives formulated their strategy with the explicit knowledge that the NHL salary cap was destined to scale unprecedented heights over the ensuing couple of years, allowing them to structure his deal accordingly.
"We were just looking at the projections and all the stuff that maybe not a lot of people know what’s going to happen," Celebrini told TheHockeyNews.com and other gathered media outlets during the NHL Player Media Tour in Las Vegas. "Looking at those numbers and trying to find that balance, which kind of sounds dumb, because at the time it was the highest AAV ever. But it really was just a number that made sense with where the NHL is going."
Leo Carlsson, who indirectly catalyzed this summer’s spending frenzy by signing a massive five-year, $90-million offer sheet with the Philadelphia Flyers—a deal the Anaheim Ducks ultimately chose to match—admitted to experiencing a unique mixture of emotions when the landscape shifted beneath his feet.
"I was surprised, for sure. It was a weird feeling," Carlsson reflected. "It is also an indication of where the league is heading. After this, it doesn’t feel as weird. Players are now thanking me."
Indeed, the business side of the National Hockey League has evolved immensely since Sidney Crosby arrived on the scene during the 2005-06 campaign. That season marked the inaugural year of the NHL’s hard salary cap, which was initially set at a modest $39 million. Back then, legendary veteran Jaromir Jagr commanded the highest cap hit in the entire league at $8.36 million.
Fast forward to the present day, and the financial reality of the sport has transformed to such an extent that in just a couple of years, a club might struggle to acquire a reliable fourth-line depth forward for the very amount that once secured one of the game’s elite megastars.
"It just evolves," said Crosby, whose iconic cap hit has remained steadfast at precisely $8.7 million for each of the past 18 seasons out of personal preference and team-building loyalty. "I don’t try to compare, because now is different than then. It’s obviously been a pretty sudden change with the last few contracts, with offer sheets and things like that. That changed a lot right there. That’s the reality of where everything’s at."
Along with the staggering new figures comes a massive wave of heightened expectations. With cap hits reaching historic highs, there is inevitably going to be much heavier scrutiny placed on players throughout the upcoming season. Furthermore, it wasn’t exclusively established superstars who broke the bank during the offseason. General managers across the league have increasingly committed massive financial resources to younger talents based on projected growth and future value.
For his part, Carlsson insists he remains completely unbothered by the added pressure that accompanies a major pay packet. As the No. 2 overall selection in the 2003—correction, 2023—draft, he notes that he is already well-accustomed to living under the microscope of high expectations. From young stars like Trevor Zegras at $9.125 million to Ryan Leonard commanding $10.5 million, a significant portion of the league’s rising generation is being compensated heavily for what they are expected to become as the salary cap continues its upward trajectory over the next several years. Naturally, front offices understand that not every single one of these massive gambles is going to pan out as intended.
"Obviously, this is a different kind of pressure," said Carlsson, who is coming off a stellar campaign in which he netted a career-best 29 goals and 67 points. "I feel like that’s one of the strongest parts of my game too, my calmness with pressure. When I hit the ice, there’s no pressure."