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It has certainly been a wild few weeks in British Columbia politics. British Columbia has long possessed a unique, dynamic, and arguably odd political environment that frequently defies simple categorization.
To understand the current climate, it helps to look at a quick recap of the province’s recent political history. For many years, the political landscape was primarily dominated by two main forces: the B.C. NDP and the B.C. Liberal Party. For readers outside of the province, it is important to note that the provincial B.C. Liberals were entirely independent of the federal Liberal Party. Instead, they operated as a centre-right-leaning, business- and economy-oriented political coalition.
Despite the occasional confusion caused by the name, the B.C. Liberals successfully held power from 2001 until 2017, when they were unseated by the B.C. NDP. This transition marked a significant departure from the established status quo, ushering in a progressive, worker-focused government ready to tackle the pressing social and economic challenges of the era. Years later, in an attempt to distance themselves from federal political brands, the B.C. Liberals rebranded as BC United in 2023, though the move yielded little electoral success.
John Horgan, a seasoned MLA representing Vancouver Island, served as premier from 2017 until 2022. Upon stepping down, Horgan passed the leadership baton—alongside a robust $5.7-billion post-COVID provincial budget surplus—to another veteran MLA, David Eby. Eby stepped into the premier’s office with deep policy experience, having previously served as the minister responsible for housing and as the attorney general. He immediately deployed the budget surplus toward bolstering the health care system, investing in strategic infrastructure, and launching aggressive initiatives to combat the escalating housing crisis.
Deficits, downgrades and a shrinking economy
What followed, however, was a series of significant economic headwinds. The province faced persistent post-pandemic inflation, a slowdown in broader economic growth, and looming trade uncertainties sparked by U.S. President Donald Trump alongside an ongoing trade dispute. Combine these external pressures with the administration’s naturally spend-friendly tendencies, and the province recorded remarkably high annual deficits in the range of $11 billion to $13 billion during each year of Eby’s tenure.
These figures are particularly striking given that British Columbia does not possess the population base or the vast economic clout of a province like Ontario, yet it managed to accumulate and service comparable debt loads. Concurrently, B.C.’s public sector employment expanded notably, rising from just over 520,000 positions in April 2023 to a projected 598,977 by the 2026-27 fiscal year—representing a growth rate of roughly 15 per cent. Consequently, the province experienced multiple credit downgrades, slipping from a pristine Aaa rating in 2023 down to Aa2 according to ratings agency Moody’s. These fiscal shifts triggered serious concerns regarding provincial financial management, which began to be voiced regularly across regional media outlets.
From there, economic pressures intensified. Cost-of-living metrics continued their upward trajectory, provincial economic growth remained virtually flat, and net interprovincial migration out of B.C. established itself as an annual trend. Meanwhile, the Eby administration attempted to tackle housing costs and inventory shortages through a flurry of rapid, under-consulted legislative overhauls. These measures included blanket zoning amendments, mandatory municipal housing targets, and specialized tax regimes that ultimately fell short of their intended marks. While the governing party frequently highlighted falling rental costs in public statements and media campaigns, market analysts noted that these declines were likely attributable to broader macroeconomic softening and tighter federal immigration restrictions rather than provincial legislative intervention.
A Conservative party in turmoil
Despite this difficult backdrop, the B.C. NDP managed to secure a majority government in the 2024 provincial election, albeit by a remarkably thin margin, leaving them with a two-year mandate as this fall approached. By comparison, the B.C. Conservatives experienced a chaotic internal evolution of their own. After spending many years on the political sidelines, the party emerged ahead of the 2024 vote as a broad coalition uniting traditional "true-blue" conservatives with more moderate, centre-right former members of the B.C. Liberal and BC United parties. This alliance was forged through an eleventh-hour backroom arrangement orchestrated by former party leaders Kevin Falcon and John Rustad.
While this coalition granted the B.C. Conservatives legitimate official opposition status, the party grappled with an internal identity crisis driven by friction between its right-wing and far-right ideological factions. Two specific issues became persistent flashpoints for internal debate: the Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples Act (DRIPA) and Sexual Orientation and Gender Identity 123 (SOGI 123), an educational resource and anti-bullying framework implemented to foster safe learning environments for students across all sexual orientations and gender identities.
The internal strife reached what appeared to be a breaking point in September following the forced departure of its recently elected hard-right leader, Kerry-Lynn Findlay. This exit followed the earlier departures of seven MLAs who were actively exploring the formation of a separate political entity or attempting to merge with CentreBC, a newly launched fringe party with minimal political influence.
The snap election that backfired
The political dynamic shifted dramatically the moment David Eby called a surprise snap election for October 24. Eby’s election-launch speech lacked a clear central theme, relying heavily on referencing Donald Trump as a primary justification for heading to the polls—a rationale that failed to resonate with either the media or the broader electorate. Compounding these campaign challenges, several high-profile, longtime NDP cabinet ministers and MLAs, including Lana Popham and Ravi Kahlon, announced their intentions not to seek re-election.
In stark contrast, the B.C. Conservatives rallied under a new interim leader, Lorne Doerkson, a low-key, non-confrontational backbench MLA from Williams Lake who assumed the role just two days before the election was officially called. Crucially, most of the previously departed MLAs returned to the party fold. Moving away from polarizing rhetoric, the Conservatives adopted a more disciplined, centrist approach. They minimized public engagement on wedge issues and focused their campaign messages squarely on B.C.’s softening economy, mounting provincial deficits, and fresh solutions for long-standing challenges in health care, housing affordability, and education.
As campaigning accelerated, Eby struggled to introduce compelling new ideas, and voters and media members alike proved unreceptive to ongoing explanations regarding past shortcomings. Doerkson positioned himself as a steady, principled leader committed to addressing the fundamental concerns of everyday British Columbians, and the strategy proved successful.
What comes next for housing
Election day delivered a decisive result, with the B.C. Conservatives securing their largest legislative majority in the province since 2001, while the NDP surrendered nearly half of its seats. While final ballot tabulations continued, the B.C. Conservatives captured 64 of the legislature’s 93 seats, leaving the NDP with 27 and the Green Party with two. David Eby promptly announced he would step down as party leader, leaving his battered political organization to regroup and map out its future.
As the political dust settles and the B.C. Conservatives prepare for their official swearing-in ceremony, premier-designate Doerkson and his senior advisors are actively forming a new cabinet and establishing legislative priorities. Regarding housing policy, the BC Real Estate Association (BCREA), alongside allied stakeholder organizations, is moving swiftly to urge the incoming administration to pause any rushed regulatory overhauls.
For some time, BCREA has actively advocated for the creation of a lean, permanent, and highly collaborative housing policy roundtable. This proposed forum would bring together leading housing experts representing market-rate developers, non-profit housing providers, and Indigenous housing associations, alongside academic researchers and delegates from all three levels of government. Such a collaborative body would be tasked with meticulously reviewing existing and proposed housing legislation, thoroughly weighing the potential long-term impacts of new policy directions, and applying established best practices to shape the future of British Columbia’s housing market.
It remains to be seen how the incoming administration will govern, but cautious optimism prevails across the sector. If the new government establishes its foundation by listening closely and drawing upon expertise from outside government ranks, a more stable and prosperous economic future may begin to take shape across the province.
About the Author:
Trevor Hargreaves oversees research and policy, government relations, and communications at the BC Real Estate Association (BCREA). He is also an Adjunct Professor at the Sauder School of Business at the University of British Columbia. Before joining BCREA as the Senior Vice President of Policy Research, Government Relations, Marketing & Communications in 2019, he served as Director of Communications, Government and Public Relations at the BC Dairy Association and, prior to that, worked in regional media and journalism.