It is a headline that few hockey analysts or fans would have predicted at any point during the offseason: by points percentage, the Ottawa Senators find themselves tied for the top spot in the Atlantic Division, while the Winnipeg Jets sit proudly at the summit of the Central. But as the old hockey adage goes, that is precisely why you play the games.
It is easy to understand why anyone would have cast a skeptical eye toward either of these franchises given how their summers unfolded. In Ottawa, the long-running saga surrounding Brady Tkachuk finally reached its inevitable conclusion when the star forward officially asked out and got his wish. He moved south, staying within the Atlantic Division after a meek postseason bow-out for the Senators. Senators fans have jokingly taken to calling him James Bond due to his early-season contributions with his new club in Florida: zero goals, zero assists, and seven penalty minutes to kick off his tenure with the Panthers. Meanwhile, up in Winnipeg, plenty of digital ink has been spilled regarding a parallel drama, as elite goaltender Connor Hellebuyck remains at home amid a glaring contract and trade standoff.
This naturally raises a compelling question across the league: Is this a case of both teams discovering they simply do not need their marquee star players after all? As is usually the case in the National Hockey League, the reality is far more complicated.
Tkachuk-Less Senators
For Ottawa, navigating this transition always felt like a potential exercise in addition by subtraction, even if virtually everyone inside and outside the organization readily acknowledges that Tkachuk was a tremendous difference-maker for them in his prime years. However, all the off-ice distractions, including his family background and podcast commitments, appeared to gradually drive a wedge between the player and the franchise. Matters reportedly reached a point where some individuals within the Ottawa locker room were ultimately ready to move on.
Performance metrics also suggested a shifting dynamic. Tkachuk missed 10 and 22 games respectively over the past two seasons, and his overall time on ice (TOI) dropped significantly during the previous campaign. While he remains a very effective hockey player, his impact had begun to wane compared to his peak output. Whether that fluctuation was simply a quirk of the sport, a psychological byproduct of having one foot out the door, or the result of lingering physical issues remains open to debate.
Yet, when evaluating the broader tactical context of how Ottawa performed with or without Tkachuk in the lineup last season, the team’s structural foundation was remarkably improved. The Senators established themselves as a top-ten offensive team across several key metrics, including total goals for, finding the back of the net 275 times to rank eighth overall in the league.
Their defensive statistics would have looked considerably more respectable had it not been for catastrophic goaltending that ranked among the absolute worst in the NHL. The Senators were forced to cycle through five different goaltenders over the course of the season, resulting in a team save percentage of .882, not even factoring in empty-net situations.
With that foundation in mind, the central question for Ottawa heading into this year has been straightforward: Did the front office do enough to replace the offensive production that left with Tkachuk? Furthermore, operating within that otherwise sound tactical structure, can the team realistically expect a massive regression toward the mean in net?
When looking at Tkachuk’s departure, the answer to the first question is a cautious "probably," largely because his nominal replacement, William Eklund, has historically produced points at a comparable rate. Regarding the goaltending woes, the Senators’ fortunes will rely heavily on securing a full, healthy season from Linus Ullmark. This is particularly vital because their current backup option is Samuel Ersson, who statistically stands as arguably the worst goalie in the league over the last two seasons, sitting at a staggering 28.2 goals saved below expected. Fortunately for Ottawa, playing in an Atlantic Division that has shown signs of softening could afford them a bit more cushion either way as the grueling 84-game schedule unfolds.
Jets’ Outlook Without Hellebuyck
Winnipeg’s situation with Hellebuyck presents a much murkier puzzle that is significantly harder for pundits to predict. The Jets found themselves unable to win consistently even when Hellebuyck performed at a merely slightly above-average level last season. Now, with the star goaltender sitting on the sidelines at home—neither directly contributing to their success nor actively harming their ice-time efforts—managing the crease has become a delicate tightrope walk for the organization.
Stuart Skinner has performed quite well in the early stages of the year, but anyone who has followed the Edmonton Oilers knows how risky it is to count on him to deliver consistently solid outings over a long stretch before he encounters a turbulent stretch of poor performances. Skinner is a perfectly capable NHL goaltender when evaluated across a large sample size, but he has proven to be maddeningly inconsistent from game to game. When he struggles, those struggles tend to be pronounced.
Playing behind a Winnipeg team that has not historically been known for meticulously insulating its netminders from high-risk scoring chances, that volatile consistency could easily brew a recipe for disaster. The alternative option in the crease is newly acquired backup Clay Stevenson, who was serving as the Washington Capitals’ third-string goaltender until just a couple of weeks ago.
Having logged just five career NHL games at the age of 27, Stevenson is a difficult player to project accurately. However, he possesses an imposing frame at 6-foot-4 and carries a respectable career .912 save percentage in his professional resume, leaving open the possibility that Winnipeg might have unearthed a hidden gem. Then again, prudent observers may prefer to wait until he surpasses his tenth career start sometime this month before pronouncing the team’s goaltending dilemma definitively solved.
Additionally, the overarching landscape in Winnipeg could shift dramatically at any moment. Hellebuyck may soon be dealt in a blockbuster trade, and when that inevitable transaction occurs, general manager Kevin Cheveldayoff will undoubtedly demand at least a couple of established NHL players in return to immediately bolster the lineup. If Stevenson proves he can handle the load in the interim, the incoming assets do not necessarily have to be exclusively focused on the crease. Infusing high-end NHL talent into the middle or upper-middle tier of the roster would provide a massive lift to a team trying to stay afloat.
That structural reinforcement is especially critical given that the Jets are battling it out in the exceptionally brutal and fiercely competitive Central Division. It is a profound blessing for Winnipeg that they are banking points early in the season. They need to build a safety net now, before the Dallas Stars inevitably sort out their early-season struggles or make a coaching adjustment. With powerhouse squads like the Colorado Avalanche, Utah, and the Minnesota Wild performing as well as anticipated, victories are going to be at an absolute premium throughout the entirety of the campaign.
As the early weeks of the season roll on, the Ottawa Senators feel like a relatively safe bet to at least remain firmly in the playoff conversation, possessing a ceiling that stretches even higher if their goaltending stabilizes. Conversely, because Winnipeg’s roster carries a lingering sense of an incomplete grade while they navigate the Hellebuyck stalemate, the hill they must climb over the full length of the schedule appears, for now, just a bit too steep.