The opening round of the NWSL Playoffs has reduced the championship hopefuls from eight to a final four. After four high-stakes quarterfinal matches, the tournament enters its semifinal stage with shifting momentum, tactical questions, and high-profile matchups ahead.
To evaluate where each remaining club stands, we introduce the confidence meter, distributing a 100% aggregate pie across the four surviving teams. Following the first round of postseason action, which side heads into the semifinals with the strongest backing, and who faces an uphill battle?
NWSL Playoffs Power Rankings with Confidence Meter
1. Washington Spirit | 4-1 win vs Portland Thorns
- Confidence meter: 45%
- Next up: Utah Royals
The Washington Spirit emerged as the definitive winners of the quarterfinal round. Capitalizing on the Utah Royals’ stunning upset over the San Diego Wave, the Spirit now hold a golden opportunity to secure home-field advantage all the way through the NWSL Championship match.
In their commanding 4-1 demolition of the Portland Thorns at Audi Field, the Spirit displayed an elite level of offensive efficiency. Trinity Rodman and Clara Luvanga stole the spotlight, with each player recording three goal contributions. Mélissa Bethi added a fourth goal to cap off the dominant performance. Adrián González’s side was in complete control throughout the match, holding clear advantages in possession (59% to 41%), expected goals (2.38 xG to 0.89 xG), total shots (16 to 11), and touches inside the opposition penalty box (28 to 17).
Aside from a minor defensive blemish in the second half, this was precisely the type of performance the Spirit coaching staff had been looking for, particularly from an attack that needed a statement game. As the team prepares for the next round, the central question surrounding the club is simple: Is this finally the year they claim the ultimate prize?
2. Kansas City Current | 1-0 win vs Angel City FC
- Confidence meter: 25%
- Next up: Gotham FC
The Kansas City Current advanced to the semifinals following a narrow 1-0 victory over Angel City FC at CPKC Stadium. The primary talking point from the fixture centered on the foul call that led to the decisive penalty kick, sealing the win for the hosts. While the Current were undeniably the better side over the course of the ninety minutes, the manner of victory left room for improvement.
Kansas City controlled the run of play, posting distinct advantages in possession (59% to 41%), expected goals (1.94 to 1.30), shots (21 to 14), and touches in the opposition box (42 to 29). The volume and quality of scoring chances were certainly present, but the finishing touch deserted the team for much of the evening.
Given the attacking firepower provided by standout duo Temwa Chawinga and Haley Hopkins, such profligacy is unlikely to become a permanent fixture. Should they struggle to convert again, the squad possesses plenty of depth, with players like Michelle Cooper, Croix Bethune, Lo’eau LaBonta, and Vanessa DiBernardo fully capable of stepping up in key moments. However, overcoming a challenging 5-9-1 away record to pull off an upset against the NWSL Shield winners on the road will be a formidable test.
3. Gotham FC | 1-0 win vs Seattle Reign
- Confidence meter: 20%
- Next up: KC Current
NJ/NY Gotham FC booked their ticket to the semifinals courtesy of an early own-goal in the fourth minute, holding on tenaciously for a 1-0 victory against the Seattle Reign at Sports Illustrated Stadium. True to form, the win was anchored by the team’s trademark world-class defense, though the offensive display left analysts and supporters with lingering concerns.
The Bats generated a meager 0.16 expected goals (xG) and finished the match with fewer shots and touches inside the opposition box than the Reign. Entering the postseason, questions surrounding Gotham’s offensive output were a primary narrative, and their quarterfinal display only magnified those issues.
Although Gotham and the Current split their season series, Gotham’s backline will now face the daunting task of containing the highest-ranked attack in the NWSL. Whether the reigning champions can find a rhythm in the final third or once again rely entirely on their resolute defense remains the defining question of their postseason run.
4. Utah Royals | 1-0 win at San Diego Wave
- Confidence meter: 10%
- Next up: Washington Spirit
In the most stunning storyline of the quarterfinals, the Utah Royals made their NWSL playoffs debut by pulling off a massive upset against the No. 2 seed San Diego Wave at Snapdragon Stadium.
Kiana Palacios provided the vital offensive spark with the game’s lone goal, while goalkeeper Mandy McGlynn, defender Kate Del Fava, and the rest of the Utah backline anchored a brick-wall defense to preserve the shutout. The victory snapped a four-match winless streak for the expansion side, but the challenge ahead is immense: Utah must now win consecutive matches for the first time since July 25, a span stretching across 14 games.
Underlying trends present additional hurdles for the underdogs. The team has been held below 1.0 expected goals in three consecutive outings, has scored one or fewer goals in five straight matches, and has been out-metriced in several statistical categories over their last two fixtures. Despite these downward trends, the Royals found a way to survive and advance in the opening round. The question now is whether there is enough postseason magic left in the tank to challenge the Washington Spirit.
Confidence Meter Predictions
No. 3 Washington Spirit vs No. 7 Utah Royals
- Saturday, Nov. 14 at Audi Field on CBS/Paramount+
- Winner: Washington Spirit
No. 1 Gotham FC vs No. 4 Kansas City Current
- Sunday, Nov. 15 at Icahn Stadium on ABC/ESPN App
- Winner: KC Current