It is a headline that few hockey analysts or fans would have predicted at the onset of the current NHL campaign: by points percentage, the Ottawa Senators find themselves tied for first place in the Atlantic Division, while the Winnipeg Jets sit comfortably at the summit of the Central Division. But as the old adage in professional sports goes, that is precisely why they play the games.
It is easy to understand why many observers wrote both teams off during a tumultuous summer. The overarching narratives in Canada’s capital and Manitoba were defined by high-profile departures and contract standoffs involving each franchise’s premier American star from a year ago. In Ottawa, Brady Tkachuk finally and officially asked out, eventually getting his wish in a trade that moved him south to the Florida Panthers, keeping him within the Atlantic Division following a meek post-season exit.
Meanwhile, Senators fans have taken to jokingly referring to him as James Bond—007—given that he has contributed zero goals, zero assists, and seven penalty minutes to the Panthers’ opening stretch. Up north in Winnipeg, plenty of digital ink has been spilled over a similarly tense situation, with elite goaltender Connor Hellebuyck still sitting at home as his standoff with management lingers.
Yet, despite losing players who were foundational to their identities, both the Senators and the Jets have marched out of the gate with impressive results. This begs a fundamental question for hockey observers: Is this early-season success a case of both clubs simply not needing their star players after all? The reality, much like the game itself, is considerably more complicated.
Tkachuk-Less Senators
For the Ottawa Senators, parting ways with their former captain always carried the psychological weight of addition by subtraction, even if everyone within the organization readily acknowledged what a dynamic difference-maker Tkachuk had been during his tenure. However, the mounting distractions surrounding off-ice commitments, including his podcast and family dynamics, seemed to gradually drive a wedge between the player and the franchise. Reports even surfaced that certain figures within the Ottawa dressing room were quietly relieved to see the chapter close.
On the ice, Tkachuk’s durability and deployment had already begun to shift. He had missed 10 and 22 games respectively over the previous two seasons, and his time-on-ice numbers saw a significant downward trend last year. He remains a remarkably effective hockey player, but his recent output has not matched his historical peaks. Whether that drop-off was merely a statistical quirk, a symptom of a player with one foot out the door, or the result of lingering physical wear and tear is difficult to pinpoint.
When examining the broader context of how Ottawa performed with or without Tkachuk in the lineup last season, the underlying structural integrity of the team was actually on a positive trajectory. By several key metrics, the Senators established themselves as a top-ten offensive powerhouse, highlighted by 275 total goals for, which ranked eighth overall in the National Hockey League.
Conversely, their defensive metrics would have looked vastly superior if not for a catastrophic year in the crease. Ottawa cycled through five different goaltenders on their way to a dismal team save percentage of .882, excluding empty-net situations.
With these factors in mind, the primary question facing Ottawa general manager and coaching staff is whether they did enough to replace Tkachuk’s outgoing offensive production from a season ago. Within their otherwise sound tactical structure, they also need to figure out if they can realistically expect vastly improved goaltending.
In terms of replacing Tkachuk’s on-ice impact, the answer leans toward "probably," largely because his nominal replacement, William Eklund, has historically produced points at a comparable rate. On the goaltending front, the organization’s fortunes will rely heavily on a full, healthy season from veteran Linus Ullmark.
This necessity is compounded by the presence of Samuel Ersson as the backup. Ersson has statistically struggled over the last two seasons, sitting as arguably the worst goaltender in the entire league with 28.2 goals saved below expected. Nevertheless, with the Atlantic Division potentially softening around the edges this year, the Senators may find themselves cushioned by a bit more margin for error regardless of how those variables shake out.
Jets’ Outlook Without Hellebuyck
While Ottawa has forged ahead with a clear roster identity, Winnipeg’s ongoing Hellebuyck dilemma presents a significantly more unpredictable challenge. The Jets struggled to find consistent success last season even when their star netminder was playing at a slightly above-average level. With Hellebuyck currently sitting on the sidelines, neither actively contributing to the team’s success nor directly harming their nightly efforts, front-office management faces a uniquely arduous predicament.
Stuart Skinner has performed quite capably to start the current campaign, but anyone familiar with the Edmonton Oilers knows how precarious it is to rely on him for sustained, mistake-free hockey over an entire 82-game schedule. Skinner is a perfectly serviceable NHL goaltender when viewed through a macro lens, but he is notoriously prone to maddening game-to-game inconsistency. When his game drifts off course, the downward spirals can be severe.
Playing behind a Winnipeg defensive structure that has historically not known for heavily insulating its goaltenders from high-danger scoring chances, this volatility could spell trouble. The primary alternative within the organization is newly acquired backup Clay Stevenson, who served as the Washington Capitals’ third-string goaltender until just a few weeks ago.
At 27 years of age and with only five career NHL appearances on his resume, Stevenson remains a difficult projection for coaching staff and analysts alike. At 6-foot-4, he possesses an imposing physical frame and carries a respectable career .912 save percentage in lower-tier professional play, meaning Winnipeg might just have a diamond in the rough. Even so, it is wise to wait until he surpasses his tenth career start sometime this month before declaring the Jets’ goaltending question definitively answered.
Furthermore, the situation in Winnipeg remains fluid because Hellebuyck could eventually be traded. When general manager Kevin Cheveldayoff eventually pulls the trigger on a deal, the return package will undoubtedly inject at least a couple of established NHL players into the lineup. If Stevenson proves he can handle a reliable workload in the interim, the incoming trade assets do not necessarily have to address the crease. Instead, adding high-end or middle-six forward depth would provide a massive boost to a roster attempting to weather a storm in the ultra-competitive Central Division.
The Central remains a gauntlet where wins are at a premium on almost every single night. It is fortunate for Winnipeg that they are banking points early in the year, before the Dallas Stars inevitably find their footing or make a coaching adjustment. With powerhouse squads like the Colorado Avalanche, Utah, and the Minnesota Wild playing as advertised, the margin for error in the division will narrow quickly.
At this early juncture, the Ottawa Senators feel like a safe bet to remain in the postseason mix, possessing a ceiling that stretches well beyond a simple wildcard berth. Conversely, because the Winnipeg Jets are still operating with significant question marks and an incomplete roster grade, the competitive mountain they must climb over an 84-game schedule looks remarkably steep for the time being.